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Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts

Friday, September 12, 2008

THE CALCULATIONS!!

The value of investments is only as much as their returns. So, it is critical to know how much your money is worth to plan your financial goals

Managing money can involve calculations to understand the worth of an investment. To arrive at a result, calculations can be done in a different way or by using a different formula. Even the same formula can be used differently to arrive at a certain result. Here are a few commonly used money management formulas. Use an excel sheet to do these.

1. Compound Interest
I want to take a loan of Rs 1 lakh to buy a used car. How much will the car cost me at an annual interest rate of 8 per cent for four years?

The compound interest formula can be used here to calculate the final cost, which would include the loan amount and the interest paid. The amount that is actually paid for Rs 1 lakh is Rs 1,36,048.90. The total amount of interest charged for borrowing Rs 1 lakh is Rs 36,048.90.

Formula: Future value = P(1 + R)^N

Type in: =100000(1+8% )^4 and hit enter. P: amount borrowed; R: rate of interest; N: time in years.

Also used for: Calculating the maturity value on lumpsum investment (bank fixed deposits and National Savings Certificate, for example) over a fixed period at a certain rate of interest.

2. Compound Annualised Growth Rate
I had invested Rs 1 lakh in a mutual fund five years back at an NAV of Rs 20. Now the NAV is Rs 70. How should I calculate my returns on an annual basis?

Compound annualised growth rate (CAGR) will be used here to calculate the growth over a period of time. The gain of Rs 50 over five years on the initial NAV of Rs 20 is a simple return of 250 per cent (50/20 * 100). However, it should not be construed as 50 per cent average return over five years.

Formula: CAGR = {[(M/I)^(1/N) ] – 1} * 100

Type in: =(((70/20)^( 1/5))-1)* 100 and hit enter. M: maturity value; I: initial value; N: time in years. CAGR here is 28.47%.

Also used for: Calculating the annualised returns on a lumpsum investment in shares.

3. Internal Rate of Return
I paid Rs 18,572 every year on a moneyback insurance policy bought 20 years back. Every fifth year, I received Rs 40,000 back and Rs 4.5 lakh on maturity. What was my rate of return?

The internal rate of return (IRR) has to be calculated here. It is the interest rate accrued on an investment that has outflows and inflows at the same regular periods.

In the excel page type Rs 18,572 as a negative figure (-18572), as it is an outflow, in the first cell. Paste the same figure till the twentieth cell. Then, as every fifth year has an inflow of Rs 40,000, type in Rs 21,428 (40,000-18,572) in every fifth cell. In the twentieth cell, type in –18572. In the twenty first cell, type in Rs 4,50,000, which is the maturity value of the policy.

Then click on the cell below it and type: = IRR(A1:A21) and hit enter.

5.28% will show in the cell. This is your internal rate of return.

Also used for: Calculating returns on insurance endowment policies.

4. XIRR
I bought 500 shares on 1 January 2007 at Rs 220, 100 shares on 10 January at Rs 185 and 50 shares at Rs 165 on 18 May 2008. On 21 June 2008, I sold off all the 650 shares at Rs 655. What is the return on my investment?

XIRR is used to determine the IRR when the outflows and inflows are at different periods. Calculation is similar to IRR’s. Transaction date is mentioned on the left of the transaction.

In an excel sheet type out the data from the top most cell as shown here. Outflows figures are in negative and inflows in positive. In the cell below with the figure 4,25,750, type out

=XIRR (B1:B4,A1:A4) *100

Hit enter. The cell will show 122.95%, the total return on investment.

Also used for: Calculating MF returns, especially SIP, or that for unit-linked insurance plans.

5. Post-Tax Return
My father wants a bank FD at 10 per cent return for five years. He pays income tax. What will be the returns?

The post-tax return has to be calculated here. The idea is to know the final returns on a fully taxable income. Interest income from the bank is taxed as per your tax slab.

Formula: ROI – (ROI * TR)=Post-tax return

Type in: =10 – (10 * 30.9%) and hit enter. You will get 6.91%

ROI: rate of interest; TR: tax rate (depends on tax slab)

Also used for: Calculating post-tax returns of national savings certificates, post-office time deposits, and Senior Citizens’ Savings Scheme.

6. Pre-Tax Yield

My brother says that the investment in public provident fund (PPF), which gives 8 per cent, is the best. Isn’t 8 per cent a low rate of return?

An investment’s pre-tax yield tells us if its return is high or low. The return on PPF (8 per cent) is tax-free. Also, this has to compared with returns of a taxable income to estimate its worth. For someone paying a tax of 30.9 per cent, the pre-tax yield in PPF is 11.57 per cent. At present, there is no fixed, safe and assured-return option that has 11.57 per cent return and a post-tax return comparable to PPF’s 8 per cent.

Formula: Pre-tax yield = ROI / (100-TR)*100

Type in: =8/(100-30.9) *100 and hit enter. You will get 11.57%. ROI: rate of interest, TR: tax rate, (depends on tax slab)

Also used for: Calculating the yield on an Employees’ Provident Fund or any other tax-free instrument.

7. Inflation
My family’s monthly expense is Rs 50,000. At an inflation rate of 5 per cent, how much will I need 20 years hence with the same expenses?

The required amount can be calculated using the standard future value formula. Inflation means that over a period of time, you need more money to fund the same expense.

Formula: Required amt.=Present amt. *(1+inflation) ^no. of years

Type in: =50000*(1+5% or .05)^20 and hit enter. You will get Rs 1,32,664 as the answer, which is the required amount.

Also used for: Calculating maturity value on an investment.

8. Purchasing Power
My family’s monthly expense is Rs 50,000. At an inflation rate of 5 per cent, how much will be the purchasing value of that amount after 20 years?

Inflation increases the amount you need to spend to fetch the same article and in a way reduces the purchasing power of the rupee. Here, Rs 50,000 after 20 years at an inflation of 5 per cent will be able to buy goods worth Rs 18,844 only.

Formula: Reduced amt.= Present amt. / (1 + inflation) ^no. of yrs

Type in: =50000/(1+5% )^20 and hit enter. You will get Rs 18,844, which is the reduced amount.

9. Real Rate of Return
My father wants to make a one-year bank FD at 9 per cent. On maturity, he says, the capital will be preserved and he would get assured return on it.

It is true that fixed deposit is safe and gives assured returns. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real rate of return can be negative.

Formula: Real rate of return=[(1+ROR) /(1+i)-1] *100

Type in: =((1+9%)/(1+ 11%)-1)*100 and hit enter. -1.8% is the real rate of return. ROR: Rate of return per annum; i: rate of inflation (11 per cent here).

10. Doubling, Tripling of Money
I can get 12 per cent return on my equity investments. In how many years can I double or even triple my money?

Formula: No. of years to double = 72/expected return

Type in: =72/12 and hit enter. You will get 6 years. For tripling, type in: =114/12 and hit enter. You will get 9.5 years. For quadrupling, type in: =144/12 and hit enter to get 12 years.

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Saturday, February 9, 2008

Economy-made in INDIA gets stronger!!!!

Made-in-India brand gets stronger
Suveen K Sinha in New Delhi February 18, 2006
http://us.rediff.com/money/2006/feb/18spec.htmThe Pune factory of Tata Motors has a training wing where one can observe young apprentices at work. Some of them have studied up to Class X, some up to Class XII. Few of those faces have had contact with a razor
.
However, their hands move deftly over basic tools as well as laser and computer numerically controlled machines. This focus on skills - the training wing was the first to be set up by the factory's founder, S Moolgaokar, in 1965 - also manifests itself in the company's production engineering wing, which makes dyes for global marquees such as Jaguar, Ford, Toyota and Fiat.

This skill set came to the aid of the company when it found itself driving through uncertain terrain in the 1990s, as it embarked on a three-phase programme to rejuvenate itself by increasing productivity, cutting costs and improving quality.
Nine years ago, Tata Motors had close to 38,000 employees earning an annual turnover of Rs 10,000 crore (Rs 100 billion). At present, its turnover is Rs 21,000 crore (Rs 210 billion) earned by 30,000 employees. Its salary cost has dropped to 5.5 per cent of turnover from 10-11 per cent five years ago.

"The attitude of 'can do' pervades the organisation," says Tata Motors managing director Ravi Kant. Skill, innovation, productivity and cost efficiency are also the leit motif at other Indian manufacturing houses, most of which found themselves wobbling when faced with the challenge of becoming globally competitive in the 1990s – a task made more onerous by the industrial downturn in the decade's second half.
Mahindra & Mahindra's 5,000 employees churned out 60 vehicles a day in 1994. The company now has 2,000 employees rolling out 160 vehicles every day with zero overtime.

Essar Steel has constructed the world's second-longest iron ore slurry pipeline of 267 km from Bailadilla to Visakhapatnam that can carry 8 million tonnes of iron ore a year and bring down transport costs from Rs 550 to Rs 80 a tonne.
Last year, when Japan's automotive giant Honda Motor expressed an intention to use two spark plugs in its 100-125 cc motorcycles to reduce engine friction, a cheer went up in the research and development wing of Bajaj Auto, which claims to be the first to use two spark plugs in motorcycle engines.

Maruti Udyog Limited, during the three years to 2004-05, cut costs by 30 per cent and increased productivity by 50 per cent. It has embarked on a similar programme for the next three years.

These are also companies that have traversed the great distance from the wobbly to the bountiful in just a few years. Tata Motors made a Rs 500 crore (Rs 5 billion) loss in 2000-01. It made a profit of Rs 1,236 crore (Rs 12.36 billion) in the last financial year.

Maruti Udyog has moved from a loss of Rs 269 crore (Rs 2.69 billion) in 2000-01 to a net profit of Rs 853.6 crore (Rs 8.53 billion) in 2004-05.
Mahindra & Mahindra's Rs 512.6 crore (Rs 5.12 billion) profit for 2004-05 marked a steep climb from just Rs 96.9 crore (Rs 969 million) in 2001-02.
Essar Steel has, between 2002 and 2005, reduced its term debt by Rs 1,100 crore (Rs 11 billion). When the two-wheeler market shifted overwhelmingly from scooters to motorcycles, it was expected to claim Bajaj Auto as a casualty.

Today, the company is a strong number two in motorcycles with a 36 per cent share of the market.

As these companies turned around, they also turned economic theory on its head. In general, economies move from agrarian to manufacturing to services. In the 1990s, it was generally expounded that India had missed the manufacturing bus.

It remained untouched by the first wave of industrial offshoring revolution, which gravitated to China, Thailand and other countries in East Asia, helping a vast section of the working population migrate from agriculture to industry.
India's future, they said, lay in services. This gained credence as agriculture's share in India's gross domestic product fell to barely 20 per cent from 32 per cent in 1991, and that of services soared to 52 per cent from 41 per cent.

Industry's share remained flat at 27 per cent and within that, manufacturing's remained stagnant at 17 per cent. The industrial downturn of 1996-97 doused whatever little hopes there may have been of a manufacturing renaissance.
However, services are much less efficient in creating jobs compared with manufacturing. That didn't work for India, 2.5 per cent of whose population is joining the workforce every year, compared with a population growth of 1.5 per cent.

Says Shirish Sankhe, a partner in consultancy company McKinsey: "Without manufacturing, India could not grow. Manufacturing is the best avenue to create jobs that may not be very education-intensive - services need education - and pull people out of agriculture."

There had to be a way to get on to the bus. It could not be done the China way, which was one of China's high-volume low-cost model, since China had already mastered it. Given its thrust on special economic zones and flexible labour policy, it would be difficult to upstage. Why would, say, a Walmart, which sources most of its goods from China, turn to India?

The solution was found in skill-based manufacturing, which increased cost efficiency while keeping quality high.

Says Baba N Kalyani, "India's strength lies in products that require multiple skills, using technology to increase productivity," says Baba N Kalyani, chairman and managing director of Pune-based Bharat Forge.

Over the last five years, the employee cost of Bharat Forge, the world's second-largest forging company, has dropped from 9 per cent of the turnover to 5 per cent, even as wages have doubled.

Bharat Forge was an early bird. Starting in 1989, it overhauled its business model to usher in modernisation. In the subsequent years, a similar wind quietly blew in to other manufacturing companies, dismissed in the 1990s as "old economy".
This was the time when Indian manufacturing was moving from the doomed low technology-low capital-cheap labour model delivering "just about" quality to a combination of high technology, higher capital and a very highly skilled workforce that promised global competitiveness.

Around this time, the business climate too changed. The country had always had a steady supply of technical manpower. Interest rates fell from 19-21 per cent to about 10 per cent and under.

Labour, which used to think of management as the devil's own, began to realise that their interests were not very divergent after all.

Ten years ago, M&M's Kandivli plant, near Mumbai, had a quota system under which each worker's actual work time was under 240 minutes a day. Today, every worker puts in 450-460 minutes a day, excluding the lunch break.
The coming of age of services, especially software, helped. People began to appreciate the technology-driven business model. M&M got into nuts and bolts, literally, to reduce the time taken for each activity in terms of seconds.

Its utility vehicle Scorpio, in the beginning, had about 6,000 welding spots. As the company gained confidence in its product, the number of spots came down to 5,500. Tata Motors' Pune plant alone has 100 robots. You wouldn't find a soul on Essar Steel's shopfloor, except in the electric arc furnace.

Even the public sector - whose prime function once upon a time was to create employment - caught on. In 1998, Steel Authority of India Ltd had 1,77,000 employees and produced 10 million tonnes of steel. Its private sector rivals produced half that amount with a workforce of just 5,000.

Having spent Rs 12,000 crore (Rs 120 billion) on modernisation, SAIL now produces 13 million tonnes with 1,24,000 employees. Five years ago, SAIL was groaning under a debt burden of Rs 15,000 crore (Rs 150 billion). It is debt-free now. "We can withstand the dynamics of the market," says V S Jain, the company's chairman.
Cost efficiency has made it lucrative to do business in India. According to the Confederation of Indian Industry, the average return on investment in India is over 19 per cent, compared with just over 14 per cent for China.

That higher return is a reflection of higher value-added manufacturing. M&M spent a mere Rs 600 crore (rs 6 billion) on the Scorpio project. "For a multinational doing a similar project overseas, the cost would be Rs 4,000 crore (Rs 40 billion)," says the company's president (automotive), Pawan Goenka.

The result is a blow to the old wisdom that in vehicle manufacturing only a very high scale - Detroit pegged it at 1 million - can ensure profitability. The Scorpio is profitable on sales of 33,000 a year. Macroeconomic data too is beginning to show that Indian manufacturing is riding a crest, growing at 9 per cent a year, the highest in recent memory.

But more to the point is the changing world attitude. When Ratan Tata had announced Project Mint, which yielded Indica, in the 1990s, it was greeted with universal scepticism.

Experts thought the project would finally undo the man, whose track record had not been exactly exemplary. Two years ago when Tata said he would make a car that retailed for $2,000, the reaction was one of anticipation. The experts wanted to know how he would do it.
And, as the company's vice-president Rajiv Dube points out, no one uses the phrase "old economy" any more.

Next stage: The world
The once-troubled Daewoo Commercial Vehicles has turned around. Acquired by Tata Motors two years ago and renamed Tata Daewoo Commercial Vehicles, its net profit increased three times to Rs 45.8 crore (Rs 458 million) for April-December 2005. It has a 27 per cent share of the South Korean market.

"We cut costs there, just like in India, and increased exports substantially to South Africa, Middle East and South Asia, where Tata is already an established brand," says Tata Motors' managing director Ravi Kant.

Kant's explanation, though small, tells a big story - an Indian company acquiring a multinational and helping it prosper on the strength of cost efficiency and brand development in India.

India's exports account for just 0.8 per cent of world trade, compared with 6.4 per cent for China. But its share could quadruple in a decade, according to McKinsey.
"Manufacturing exports from India could increase from $40 billion in 2002 to approximately $300 billion by 2015, leading to a share of approximately 3.5 per cent in the world manufacturing trade," says the consultancy.

In part, that will be a result of the downsizing of blue-collar America - such as auto-component giant Delphi - and the subsequent outsourcing to low-cost countries in a way that does not increase exposure to China. But a big role will be played by Indian companies that are making the world take notice of the "Made in India" label.
Close to 5 per cent of Mahindra & Mahindra's turnover now comes from overseas, but it has been growing at 90 per cent. The company hopes to earn a fifth of its turnover from abroad in three years. "We have the ambition to become a truly global company," says M&M president (automotive), Pawan Goenka.

Last year, the company took control of Chinese tractor maker Jiangling, which gave it a foothold in the world's third-largest market and a low-cost base from which to export tractor kits to the US. Starting May this year, it will start selling the Scorpio and Bolero in Spain and Portugal.

Indian automotive component companies have already notched up a number of acquisitions overseas. Pune-based Bharat Forge, which has made six acquisitions in four countries in the last two years, has set a target to become the global leader in its business by 2008.

Tata Steel is the world's lowest-cost producer of steel. Hero Honda is the world's largest motorcycle manufacturer. And Maruti Udyog, in which Japan's Suzuki Motor Corp holds about 55 per cent of the equity, is slated to soon become bigger than the parent.

Infrastructure remains a constraint in India. Most infrastructure services cost 50-100 per cent higher here than in China, with Indian manufacturers paying twice as much for electricity and three times as much for rail freight.

However, according to consultancy firm KPMG, India scores better than either China or Brazil on business regulation, better than either on the burden of tax and customs administration, and better than Brazil on the perceived level of corruption.According to KPMG, many companies have developed effective "workarounds" to deal with India's infrastructural challenge. For instance, ports are indeed congested. But if you have the right clearing agents, you can ship cargo.

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Economy-Business leaders of india..........

Infosys Chairman and Chief Mentor N R Narayana Murthy has emerged as India's most admired business leader, for the fifth consecutive year, in the 5th Annual B-School Study conducted by Brand-comm, a leading brand consulting, advertising and PR firm headquartered in Bangalore

About 545 students from 13 leading management institutes across the country participated in the survey.

B-school students admire Narayana Murthy for being a socially responsible individual. He is looked up to as a leader who is honest and passionate about his work. The clarity and consistency in Murthy's personal branding and positioning seem to have been highly effective for the last five years.

Ratan Tata, Chairman of Tata Group, occupies the second position in the list of most admired business leaders. Though Ratan Tata was in the second position last year as well, the margin between the first and the second positions has widened this year.

The Ambanis, including the late Dhirubhai Ambani occupy the third position, and Azim Premji, Chairman of Wipro Limited, Vijay Mallya, Chairman, UB Group, and Kumar Mangalam Birla, Chairman, Aditya Birla Group, are jointly placed in the fourth position.

MOST-ADMIRED BUSINESS LEADERS
1
N R Narayana Murthy
Infosys Tech
2
Ratan Tata
Tata Group
3
Dhirubhai, Mukesh and Anil Ambani
Reliance Group
4
Azim Premji, Kumar Mangalam Birla, Vijay Mallya
Wipro, A V Birla Group, UB Group
5
Subroto Bagchi
MindTree Consulting
6
K V Kamath
ICICI Bank
7
Capt G R Gopinath
Air Deccan
8
Nandan Nilekani
Infosys Tech
9
Kishore Biyani
Pantaloon

If Ratan Tata is admired for being a visionary and for his commitment for the country's development, Azim Premji is admired for his values towards his employees, for his integrity, discipline and vision for Wipro.

The flamboyant Vijay Mallya, who was low in rankings last year has climbed up to the fourth position and is admired for contrasting set of qualities as compared to the top three. The qualities admired in Mallya are his energy, dynamism, flair, foresight and capacity to innovate.

The changing face of Indian economy seems to have triggered the entry of a whole new set of business leaders into the top 10 this year. With the retail industry seeing a boom period, the 'Badshah of retail' Kishore Biyani has found his way to the top 10 of the most admired B-school leaders.

The other new names in the top 10 include MindTree CEO Subroto Bagchi, ICICI Bank CEO K V Kamath, Air Deccan Managing Director Capt. G R Gopinath and Infosys CEO Nandan Nilekani.
MOST-ADMIRED COMPANIES
1
Infosys
2
Tata
3
Wipro
4
HLL, MindTree, TCS and ITC, McKinsey
5
Oracle
6
Google
7
GE
8
Bharti
9
HSBC

Ramanujam Sridhar, CEO, Brand-comm, said, "There aren't too many surveys that I know that have survived for five years. We at Brand-comm are extremely proud and happy for having been able to conduct this survey successfully for five years now. This study reiterates the value of personal branding. People, like brands, can make a difference to companies."

Infosys and Tata continue to be the two most attractive Indian companies to work for, for the B-school students participating in the study. While Wipro has moved up the rankings, FMCG major HLL, which occupied the third rank last year, has slipped to the fourth place.

Procter and Gamble has also slipped below and moved out of the top 10.

Interestingly, this year's survey has thrown up some new 'most admired companies'.

The list includes MindTree Consulting, which has come up many notches to occupy the fourth place. Likewise, Reliance also has come back into the top 10 this year and occupies the fourth place jointly with MindTree, TCS, ITC and HLL. Companies like Oracle, Google, GE, Bharti and HSBC are the other companies who have entered the top 10 this year.

Though both Infosys and Tata were chosen as companies providing the best work environment, work culture and excellent HR practices and were chosen by a majority of the respondents, the IIM students were found to have a strong preference for McKinsey and Reliance.

Tata / Tata Group was named as the 'most admired corporate brand with operations in India.'

Infosys follows Tata in this category, with TCS and HLL, a remote third. TCS has moved up the ladder from being fifth last year. Notably, 'Indian' companies occupy the top 8 slots as best corporate brands and even the IIM students rate Infosys and Tata on par as the best corporate brand.

Pavan Padaki, director, creative planning, Brand-comm, who has been the architect of the study said: "This year the study has affirmed the power of personal branding. This is evident in the fact that despite the death of the great Dhirubhai Ambani and the subsequent family feud, the Ambanis continue to be in the top 5. This is a wonderful example of the enduring impact of personal branding."

"Also, 'sunshine' sectors like BPO, telecom, biotech, pharmaceuticals/healthcare, insurance, BPO, fashion, retail, etc. have failed to attract the B-Schools as potential industry sectors to build their careers. Consulting, software/hardware /EDP, banking/financial services, FMCG, followed by Investment Banking continue to be the top five industry sectors, as a choice for immediate placement for the B-school students."

The study also reveals that, unlike last year, the opinion of B-school students who are next generation business leaders is divided on whether they want to be entrepreneurs or want to work for an organisation. Surprisingly, no significant difference in opinion was found between the IIM and other B-school students in this regard.

Economy-y $ flling faster-ministrations!!!!


Why the dollar is falling so fast

AnalysisBy Steve Schifferes BBC News economics reporter

The US dollar is plunging in world currency markets - and bringing down share prices in its wake.

But why is the dollar under pressure - and what would be the consequences for the US economy if it continues to fall?

Behind the problems of the dollar lies the huge and growing US trade deficit, and the large Federal budget deficit.

A fall in the greenback could hit Asian countries whose governments hold huge foreign currency reserves in dollars
For many years financial markets have worried about the growing size of the US trade deficit - the difference between the amount the US imports from the rest of the world, and the amount it can sell to the rest of the world.

That deficit has now reached a record $742bn , or 7% of the US economy, and shows no signs of diminishing.

At the same time, tax cuts and the war in Iraq have kept the US budget deficit at around $400bn despite the booming economy.

Asian giants
Much of the trade gap relates to US commerce with East Asian countries such as China, Japan, and Korea, who sell much more to America than they buy.

Together, the East Asian countries have accumulated foreign currency surpluses of nearly $1 trillion, much of it held in US Treasury bonds denominated in dollars.

Thus they are funding both the budget gap and the trade gap.

These huge global imbalances are threatening to derail the world economy, the IMF and other international organisations have warned.

The classic economic view of how to correct such changes is to adjust the exchange
rate in order to make US goods cheaper and Asian goods more expensive.

But many Asian currencies - especially the Chinese yuan - do not float freely on international currency markets, and the US has long been pressuring China to revalue its currency.

Now the markets are beginning to take matters into their own hands, by forcing the US dollar down.

In the last few months, speculators selling off dollars are not just buying other currencies like the euro or yen, but they also buying commodities like gold and oil, forcing up their prices further.

In the long run, the fall in the dollar could lead to a cut in the trade deficit and a boost to US exports.

But this process often takes a long time, and in the meantime, it is fraught with dangers.

The fall in the dollar is worrying the IMF, the international organisation charged with surveillance of the world economy.

"A disorderly unwinding of global imbalances would be very damaging," IMF managing director Rodrigo Rato warned at its spring meeting in April.

Run on the dollar
In the first place, a rapid fall in the dollar, if it accelerates, could cause short-term problems for the US economy.

The higher price of imported goods could lead to a hike in domestic inflation, and it could take several years before consumers switch back to buying more US goods.
High inflation, combined with the stronger-than-expected growth of the US economy, could force the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, to keep raising interest rates.

They have already been raised 15 times, and now stand at 5%, partly on fears of a growing housing boom.

But the fears of inflation are also likely to affect the interest rates on long-term bonds, which determine mortgage rates.

The rising mortgage rates, while they may eventually dampen the housing boom, will also give a further boost to inflationary pressures.

International exporters hit
Meanwhile, foreign companies who have derived an increasing proportion of their sales and profits from the US market could also be hit by falling demand for their exports.

The sharp falls in non-US stock markets, especially in Asia, are a response to this fear, with electronics and car companies like Toyota and Sony especially vulnerable.

And that in turn could affect the growth rate of countries like China, who derive much of the growth in their economies from exports.

But the Asian exporters also have another reason to feel vulnerable.

As the value of the dollar falls, their reserves of the currency also reduce in value, as do the yields on the US Treasury bonds held by many of their central banks.

In buying such bonds these governments are, in effect, underwriting the large US Federal budget deficit as well.

This deficit is set to increase as the baby boomer generation faces retirement.
The Asian governments and investors may be tempted to sell many of their dollar holdings in order to protect themselves - but this would have the effect of weakening the dollar further.

And it would force the Fed to raise interest rates even more to protect the dollar.
Countries like China are reluctant to massively revalue their currency - because it would make investing in China much more expensive and could deter valuable foreign investment.

Managed float
This problem with the dollar has happened before, in the l980s, when it was Japan rather than China that was seen as the main threat.

At that time, the main industrialised countries worked together for a managed currency float in an agreement called the Plaza Accord.

The coordinated approach led to a managed decline in the value of the dollar, which then stabilised at a more sustainable level, supported by central banks.

However, the current US administration does not favour such an approach, believing that the markets should be left to their own devices.

And given the vast size of foreign currency markets today, it is doubtful that central banks could make such an effective intervention again.

The downside for the US in the l980s was that it was forced to enter into an international agreement with other governments that reduced its freedom to set its own domestic policy.

But in the absence of such an agreement, it looks like the markets themselves are finally deciding that the US 'twin deficits' are no longer sustainable.

And when the world's largest economy begins to look shaky, it is not surprising that confidence among financial markets is weakened around the world.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Economy-bar stool postulate-a gud piece of work by david kamerchen

Bar Stool Economics
Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:
The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The seventh would pay $7.
The eighth would pay $12.
The ninth would pay $18.
The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.
So,
that's what they decided to do. The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve. 'Since you are all such good customers, he said, 'I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20. Drinks for the ten now cost just $80.
The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free. But what about the other six men - the paying customers?How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his 'fair share?'
They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.
And so:
The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).
The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33%savings) .
The seventh now pay $5 instead of $7 (28%savings) .
The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).
The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).
The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).
Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.
'I only got a dollar out of the $20,'declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man,' but he got $10!
''Yeah, that's right,' exclaimed the fifth man. 'I only saved a dollar, too. It's unfair that he got ten times more than I!
''That's true!!' shouted the seventh man. 'Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!
''Wait a minute,' yelled the first four men in unison. 'We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!
'The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.
The next night the tenth man didn't show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn't have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!
And that, boys and girls, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.
David R. Kamerschen, Ph.D.Professor of Economics, University of Georgia

Economy-corporate gamble


‘Grand Game’ is a money multiplying game on the American television game show ‘The Price is Right’. It involves stakes of $10,000 a day. It is gambling — the oldest game known to mankind. There is another money multiplying game, but a modern one. This involves millions of US households as victims and trillions of dollars as stakes. That is the US Fed policy-run game of first multiplying actual money several-fold as notional wealth, and again turning the multiplied notional money into actual by making it collateral for the actual but borrowed money.

There is another aspect to this new game. In the Grand Game, the player who stakes his money may win a fortune or lose his stake. But, in the Fed’s money multiplying game, the match is already fixed. The player that stakes its money, the US household, is destined to lose, and someone else — the US corporate, that is already chosen to win — is certain to win.

This dangerous game played in the US is being offered to all other nations as part of global financial integration and as a universal model. The unfolding story is about how the Fed policy game that bankrupts households and enriches corporates is passed off as the sophisticated end of modern economics.

In the last decade and more, particularly with the advent of globalisation in early 1990s, the US Fed seems to have chosen corporates as the principal vehicle to handle US household money. The economic rationale to bank on US corporates seems to be this: that money — read wealth — cannot be multiplied by households the way corporates can.

Money multipliers

Normal householders are just savers, not multipliers, of money. But corporates know how to multiply money. This money multiplying game policy-hosted by the US Fed is very different from the actual, not notional, money multiplier idea expounded by John Maynard Keynes.

The short story of the new game begins now.
Let’s assume that the Fed interest rate is 10 per cent and at that rate the US households have the potential to save $400 billion. This $400 billion is no imaginary number. Had the US households’ share of savings continued to be 80 per cent of the total, as in early 1980s, in the year 2006 it would have been $400 billion at the Fed rate of 10 per cent as in 1980s. US families would have kept most of their $400 billions savings in safe and fixed rated investments.

The next act of the story begins now. The Fed rate cuts the interest rate to levels of, say, 1 per cent or 2 per cent, as it was from 2002 to 2004 — that is intended repel savers and invite spenders. Americans are unlike the Japanese, who will save even at no interest. Snubbed by low rates, Americans prefer to spend rather than save. And the most of what little they save, they don’t bank but invest in corporate stocks, seeking risky but high returns. A major part of their indirect savings through pension and other funds is also invested in stocks.

The state-administered social security provided by the US government also unburdens the households from their traditional need to save for a rainy day and helps them take risks with their savings. So, thanks to the low Fed rate regime, what households would otherwise save and bank finds its way, through the retail malls, into the reserves of corporates as their income or into their capital or as market capitalisation through Wall Street. How does the money thus removed from the pockets of households multiply through the corporates, and for whose benefit?

Investment in stocks

Assume that $200 billions, that is 50 per cent of the $400-billion savings mentioned earlier, is diverted into stocks by savers directly or through pension or other funds and the balance 50 per cent is converted into consumption spend. The $200 billion fresh investment in stock market will push the stock prices and the market index or fill the coffers of the corporates to the extent it is subscription to new stocks. This will create extra demand for stocks in the market and will push stock prices and index.

Thus the fresh investment in stocks multiplies into notional wealth in the form of higher, but unrealised, stock prices. Next, the extra consumption expenditure of $200 billion too multiplies several-fold, thanks to the high velocity of circulation of the dollar. Given the current velocity of circulation of the dollar of 10 or more — namely the number of times the dollar changes hands in a year — the $200 billion consumption spend turns into a revenue aggregate of $2,000 billion ($200 b x10) for the corporates.
Assuming a profit rate of 10 per cent on sales, the pre-tax corporate profit on the revenue aggregate of $2,000 billion will be $200 billion. As a third of it goes for tax, the post-tax profit will be $133 billion. On the basis of the arithmetic average price-earnings ratio of 16 in the US stock market, this will lead to appreciation in stock values by $2.133 trillion.

So, the $400 billion inducted as capital into the stock market and as income to corporates has a multiplier effect that produces notional wealth several times the actual. But the climax of the game is yet to come. And here it is. The actual money that multiplies several-fold into notional money is turned into actual money again, as if by a magic wand.

This happens by asset value-based lending, where the notional values act as collateral to borrow and fund more consumption or further investment in stocks by borrowers.
This leads to yet another round of multiplication of the borrowed actual money into notional money. In this multiplication game, the distinction between notional and actual values disappears. The result is a sub-prime crisis and the like. More.

Corporate control

In whose hands does the actual money multiply? Not with the households that stake their money. Nor for their benefit. The Fed game ensures that it is the US corporates that will own and control the wealth. The numbers speak. From 1960 to 1980, US households had a share of 70 per cent of the national savings, and corporate savings formed the remaining 30 per cent.

In the early 1980s, families’ share rose to 80 per cent plus and the corporate share was down to 20 per cent. This was when the US Fed interest rates were at their peak — mostly above 10 per cent, encouraging families to save.

Despite an inflation rate of 1 per cent the Fed had increased its rates from 6-7 per cent in 1987 to 9 per cent and above in 1989. In 1990, the Fed rate was 7-8 per cent, the share of family savings was over 71 per cent; and the corporate share 29 per cent.

This is where the new game begins. The Fed cuts the rate gradually and brings it to just 1 per cent in 2002. The high family savings dwarfed from 71 per cent to a negative, yes negative, figure of 22 per cent in the year 2006, indicating that US families spent 22 per cent more than they earned, that is they were living on borrowing.

During the same period, the share of the corporates in total savings rose from 30 per cent in 1990 to 122 per cent of the national savings in 2006. The extra 22 per cent corporate surplus is directly sourced in the debt incurred by families to spend on corporate goods and services.
In actual terms, US family savings, which were $299 billion in 1990, fell to nil and then turned into a negative figure of $112 billion in 2006. Against this, corporate savings, which was $123 billion in 1990, sky-rocketed to a huge figure of $512 billion in 2006.

During this period, the debt owed by US households on credit cards rose from $686 billion in 1987 to $2,339 billion by September 2006. Result? Between 1990 and 2006, family savings fell by 138 per cent and their debts rose by 341 per cent, but the corporate savings rose by 416 per cent.


No expert is needed to interpret these figures. What it means to the US and to the world is yet another topic by itself. QED: The US Fed has bankrupted US households to enrich the US corporates. It is gambling not just with family money but with the idea of family itself.
(The author is a corporate adviser. His e-mail is
guru@gurumurthy. net)

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Indian juggernaut on a triad role!!!!!

Hospitality matters!!!!
"Given the vast and varied interest, Indian business leaders can sound overwhelmed. “Iceland is suddenly on our radar screen,” said Supriya Banerji, the deputy director general of the Confederation of Indian Industry, one of the country’s largest trade groups. “Malta is coming in and Cyprus is clamoring for us.” So are Trinidad and Tobago, Uganda, Vietnam, Kazakhstan and Mozambique, all of which have sent delegations. "


India, a Stirring Giant, Is the New Place to See and Be Seen

http://travel. nytimes.com/ 2007/12/13/ business/ worldbusiness/ 13visit.html? fta=y

By
HEATHER TIMMONS
Published: December 13, 2007



NEW DELHI — If it’s Monday, it must be Romania — and Finland and Minnesota.
José Sócrates, right, Portugal’s prime minister, with Peter Mandelson, left, a trade commissioner, and José Manuel Barroso of the European Commission at a ceremony in New Delhi last month.



A soaring economy and crumbling trade barriers are making
India a “must visit” destination for foreign politicians and executives. The crush of visitors, often first-timers but also companies seeking to expand their existing operations here, lands daily. They all hope to sign deals, find local partners, sell their wares or just soak up the contradictions that characterize the world’s largest democracy, a singular melding of chaos and opportunity.



Bald demographics make India impossible to ignore, and the slowdown in the United States economy adds to its appeal. About half of the country’s 1.1 billion people are under 25, and its rapidly expanding middle class is already estimated to be as large as the entire population of the United States. A rocketing stock market and a fast-growing class of the superrich add to its appeal.



Trade experts compare the rising tide of interest to the wave of outsiders who flooded China a few years ago. This year,
Felipe Calderón Hinojosa became the first Mexican head of state to visit India in 22 years. Angela Merkel, the chancellor of Germany, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, and Henry M. Paulson Jr., the United States Treasury secretary, have all paid their respects.



But official delegations are arriving from unexpected corners of the globe, too. On a recent typical Monday in New Delhi, the government played host to Minnesotan businessmen led by Gov.
Tim Pawlenty, a Romanian delegation led by the senior counselor in the ministry of small and medium-size companies, and Finns led by the minister of trade and development.



Privatization of major industries, a quickly Westernizing, youthful population and the prevalence of English draw a wildly diverse group of prospectors.



On a recent visit to Mumbai,
Donald Trump Jr. pledged to invest in real estate there, Jägermeister held parties in New Delhi to introduce consumers to its herbal liquor, Prudential Financial partnered with the Indian real estate giant DLF to create an asset management business and Fiat announced tentative plans to import the Alfa Romeo.


India is like the “proverbial bus in today’s business world,” said Suhel Seth, managing partner with Counselage India, a New Delhi-based branding consultancy. “No one knows where it is going, no one knows whether there is space on it for them — but no one wants to miss that bus.”



Given the vast and varied interest, Indian business leaders can sound overwhelmed. “Iceland is suddenly on our radar screen,” said Supriya Banerji, the deputy director general of the Confederation of Indian Industry, one of the country’s largest trade groups. “Malta is coming in and Cyprus is clamoring for us.” So are Trinidad and Tobago, Uganda, Vietnam, Kazakhstan and Mozambique, all of which have sent delegations.



It is too soon to tell what impact the visits will have economically. They rarely yield immediate results, and sometimes they produce negative reactions. India’s mix of poverty and areas where vast, fetid slums edge newly refurbished international airports and barefoot children beg outside of $500-a-night hotels, has left more than one Western visitor aghast.



The realities of India often surprise even first-time visitors who have studied the country. Signs of social upheaval — strikes, dangerous roads and electricity that flickers off even in the most luxurious hotels — are common. One recent morning in a five-star New Delhi hotel, bleary-eyed Minnesota executives puzzled out a scene from the night before. As they had returned from a visit to the Taj Mahal, thousands of protesters blocked the road, police conspicuously absent. The Americans did not make it back to New Delhi until after midnight.



“We learned a lot,” said Jonathan B. Farber, president of global underwriting for Travelers, the insurance company, picking his words. It was interesting to see “how the logistics worked themselves out,” he said, recalling that as protesters laid down in one lane of the highway, two-way traffic seemed to intuitively share the other lane.



In spite of such hiccups, most visitors are optimistic about India’s future and the opportunities it offers their companies. To date, “trade has been rather modest,” acknowledged Asko Numminen, the Finnish ambassador, tall and blue-eyed, in an understated gray suit that complemented his embassy’s clean Nordic lines. In a nod to his host country, his tie depicted a field of elephants.



In Finland, Mr. Numminen said, “we are speaking about the ‘India phenomena.’” He said companies, universities and research centers were looking toward India because it had the “biggest pool of human resources in the world.” Since the beginning of September, Mr. Numminen has traveled twice to Chennai to open factories for Finnish companies, and Finnair now has 12 direct flights a week from Helsinki to India.



Members of foreign royalty are also making official visits to India — even royalty whose ancestors were involved in colonization of the subcontinent centuries ago. Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands arrived in October, with eight of her country’s most important chief executives, on her second visit to India.



Warner Rootliep, general manager for the
Air France-KLM Group in the region, said the trip allowed the executives a “great opportunity to raise some questions directly to the prime minister and other ministers present.”



Showing off a knowledge of India is often de rigueur on the visits. When Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. of Utah came in October with university administrators and biotechnology executives to pitch business opportunities with Utah, he boasted over lunch with Indian industrialists that he had celebrated Diwali, the most important Hindu festival, at the governor’s mansion back home.



Grinning, he said the relationship between the United States and India had “gone from being flat as a chapati to sweet as gulab jamun,” referring to a flatbread and a local dessert.
Mr. Pawlenty of Minnesota started his speech in New Delhi with “namaste,” the Hindi greeting, though he was quick to address the obvious question: What could a group of Minnesotan and Indian businessmen have in common?



He said Indians tended to like spicy food, while some Minnesotans considered milk spicy, and called the contrasting weather a clear divide. But Mr. Pawlenty noted similarities too: both Minnesota and India broke away from Great Britain, both play forms of hockey, and rural life and farming are a backbone of each.



To be sure, India remains in China’s shadow. Because of weak infrastructure, a fractious political climate and other hurdles, India’s foreign trade and investment figures are dwarfed by China’s, where foreign direct investment was nearly $70 billion in 2006. But many foreign companies and governments increasingly equate the two when they talk about the growth markets of the future.



The government here expects foreign direct investment to grow rapidly next year, to some $30 billion, from $19.5 billion, and the economy to grow at 9 percent for the third year in a row.



And India definitely tops China on one front. Because of increasing business travel demand,
American Express predicts, hotel room rates here will increase more than anywhere else in the world in 2008: 34 to 38 percent for midrange hotels and 38 to 41 percent for the best hotels.